Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 4 prediction, odds, pick

Tony Nguyen | Denver Nuggets
May 12, 2024

We should have known that the defending champs wouldn’t go down as easy as it looked in Games 1 and 2. The Minnesota Timberwolves dominated Denver, beating the Nuggets by 34 points combined and holding Denver to 179 in two road games. The Timberwolves had taken control of home-court advantage, with a two-game lead and three of the next five games in Minnesota. However, Denver blew them out by 27 points in Game 3, and a win in Game 4 will eliminate all the hard work from the first two games. It is time to continue our NBA odds series with a Nuggets-Timberwolves prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

The Nuggets showed some holes in their game during the first round, but they won the series in five games so it made people forget. Denver trailed in every game of the series, but their depth and defensive play prevailed. There were some concerns heading into the second round since they split the regular season series, but the Nuggets expected to take care of business as they did in last year’s playoffs.

The Timberwolves weren’t scared of the moment in Denver, led by their emotional leader Anthony Edwards. Edwards had 43 points in Game 1 to win 106-99, then they played one of their best defensive games of the series to win 106-80. The Timberwolves had all the reason to believe in themselves heading into Game 3, but their performance showed it. They arrived with some complacency, as no one scored more than 20 points. Denver’s best players did show up, as Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr had 20+ points to win 117-90.

Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NBA Playoffs Odds: Nuggets-Timberwolves Game 4 Odds

Denver Nuggets: +2.5 (-105)

Moneyline: +125

Minnesota Timberwolves: -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline: -150

Over: 204.5 (-110)

Under: 204.5 (-110)

How to Watch Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 4 

Time: 8 PM ET/5 PM PT


Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread/Win

The Nuggets looked like the team that won an NBA title last season when they won by 27 on the road in Game 3. That could be the game that sends them on another deep playoff run, or it could be their last gasp before Minnesota takes back control of the series. When you look at this line and see Nikola Jokic as an underdog in a must-win game, it’s hard not to take the big Serbian.

Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread/Win

This could be the most talked-about and over-analyzed game of the entire series. The Timberwolves were far and away a better team during the first two games, but the Nuggets finally looked like the defending champs in Game 3. Minnesota was 3.5-point favorites in Game 3 but lost by 27 points. The oddsmakers stayed true to the line for Game 4, despite Minnesota being heavy underdogs in Games 1 and 2. After watching Game 3, it was easy to assume that Denver would be favorites again in Game 4, but they aren’t, which brings plenty of questions.

The eye-test reason Minnesota is still the favorite is that Anthony Edwards may singlehandedly stop the Nuggets from winning this game. He has already taken over plenty of games in this playoffs, and he’s done it in Game 1 on the road. If he replicates his 43-point performance, he will give Minnesota a 3-1 series lead and add to his growing legacy.

Final Nuggets-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick

It’s hard to bet against the Nuggets after watching Game 3. The fact they are underdogs makes it even harder, as they could lose in a one-possession game and still cover. However, the oddsmakers may want you to look at this line and get tricked into taking the Nuggets. We’ll believe in the legend of Anthony Edwards and say that Minnesota returns to Denver with a 3-1 series lead.

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Final Nuggets-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick: Timberwolves -2.5 (-115)